Thursday, December 3, 2009

Some like it hot

Others not.

So have the figures that show a tight linkage between human lifestyles and changes in climate and atmosphere been tuned up for purposes of "clarity?" sure looks like it. Is this going to legitimize other hypotheses? Could be -- and if one cares about science, should be. It's certainly not the first time that academic politics went to war with science and if the reality turns out to differ from the current consensus in one way or another, I certainly won't be surprised. Science is supposed to follow the data while opinion usually follows authority which follows the money.

Don't be downhearted, unplugging your cell phone charger or even driving a Prius wasn't going to change anything anyway, much less "save the planet" and I suspect you're only "going green" because it's a new way to buy into hipness.

While I do believe that science is the best possible route to truth, I don't automatically believe in the intrinsic honesty of those who practice it. If global warming does not have human activity as the predominant factor, that doesn't mean the people who lobby for the oil companies are honest and face it, they're spending huge amounts to influence scientific opinion as well as public opinion to support doing absolutely nothing that might cost them anything. Perhaps the Industrial Revolution / global warming link is true and perhaps the decrease in solar activity since the late 1950's has masked or counteracted it. The Maunder minimum does correlate strongly to a long period of solar quiesence after all. There's evidence for several schools of thought, but I just don't know and so I'm not going to be like the trolls, many of whom have jumped on a competing bandwagon hoping to ride it to where the Wizard will give them a brain and resort to mockery -- nor am I going to be a counter-troll and fling dung on anyone with other data that might be ignored at present. After all, this "climategate" thing may prove to mean nothing in the long run.

I am however, going to mention that even if we have caused atmospheric CO2 to rise and average temperatures to follow, particularly at the high latitudes, the Earth's climate is too complex and dynamic a system not to call into question simplistic long term predictions. What if the obvious warming at the polls does precipitate a sudden and catastrophic drop in temperatures as some have been arguing rather than the boiling hell of the planet Venus as others like to predict? Evidence grows that this is what happened with the Younger Dryas freeze some 12,800 years ago. Global warming could lead to global cooling and no fooling. This planet has been in a relatively long period of climate stability and change is always coming -- don't count on any change making you happy.

Odds are that I won't live long enough to see any of the hypothetical scenarios play out and I'm certainly not going to sell my coastal home or put it up on stilts. Who knows but that my Great Grandchildren won't desperately be dogsledding down here to Florida 50 years from now anyway and some future Palin won't be crossing the frozen Rio Grande heading for refuge in Mexico.

Does any possibility make alternative energy a bad idea? I don't think so. We are going to run out of things to burn eventually and the little bit of oil we might get out of the Gulf or in any Alaskan wildlife reserve won't matter one way or another - indeed arctic oil may be covered under miles of ice if that scenario proves real. We're always going to need more energy if we're to remain a civilized species -- or become a civilized species, that is.

5 comments:

  1. Does it make sense to say; unless you prove to me that my current energy use is harming the Earth, I will not change to a cleaner, renewable, energy source?

    Whether, or not our energy usage is causing global warming, we should be using renewable energy sources that will be available much longer than any product we can sap out of the Earth.

    Skip the debate and develop clean, renewable energy technology.

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  2. Yes, I agree and the oil companies disagree -- that's why they're spending the big bucks funding every challenge to the data and the people behind the data.

    Warmer or colder, the oil will run out along with the coal and the gas.

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  3. Well of course the oil companies disagree...it will cost them BIG BUCKS if we create alternative energy sources! BUT alternative energy sources ARE a wise choice whether oil runs out or not. Number One: It's safer for us as a Nation! And if that's not reason enough, then I just don't understand people period.

    Great Article Captain!!

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  4. The New Robber Barons of the 21st century actually profit either way. They own so much of the alternative energy business that when the government opens the purse strings they get money from them for R&D and when the current oil scare is over they go back to making their money the old fashioned way--with the unwitting help of the Eternal War On Terrorism's divisions of brave young americans.

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  5. "Eternal War On Terrorism" Ain't that the truth? what a perfect, amorphous object of perpetual paranoia. It's everywhere, because they define it that way. Anything can be terrorism and so we'll never be rid of it and they'll be able to work us like marionettes forever -- as long as there are enough cowards an idiots, that is.

    But you know there always will be.

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