Robert J. Samuelson has written a piece today for the Washington Post entitled “With health bill, Obama has sown the seeds of a budget crisis”.
Now first of all, let me say that Robert J. Samuelson has an impressive mustache, and this is an important qualification for an economist or an accountant, as anyone who is familiar with the Woody Allen character’s dictum on that issue should know. Especially since I myself have no mustache of any kind -- not even an unimpressive one (dinos have only pin feathers, you see) – I must, in order to maintain any credibility in this area -- agree with Mr. Samuelson in at least one area. It is an important one: notwithstanding certain Republicans’ smugness about the debt not mattering in political terms, I believe Mr. Samuelson is correct in his fiscal-conservative claim that the huge gap between our spending obligations and our tax revenues will at some point become ruinous if we can't close it -- even for a colossus like America, borrowing for a huge percentage of expenditures is dangerous, and hoping that we will always be able to grow our way out of staggering debt is not a viable long-term strategy. I would add that the only reason this borrowing hasn’t been cast as a massive Ponzi-Madoffian scheme – by which I mean in general any scheme that’s viable only so long as everybody goes along with the illusion that fuels and underwrites it – stems from our tremendous economic significance and, of course, from the indisputable fact of our military supremacy. In plain English, America is still a country you don’t want to mess with: in the economic sphere, if we get taken down, a lot of others are going with us. Only certain religious fanatics want to see America burn; everybody else realizes that we are still vital to the global economy even though other countries (China above all) are growing in importance at an astonishing clip.
But Mr. Samuelson’s impressive whiskers only ingratiate him so far with this commenter. I disagree with him about the allegedly reckless quality of the current president’s decision to move forward with health-insurance reform even during an economic downturn. I don’t consider it unfair to point out that the previous administration’s irresponsible fiscal policies and rampant militarism contributed a great deal towards our present difficulties. Their most reckless spending had little to do with social programs. I would even argue (this is not directed at the writer or any particular individual) that the political right’s long-term goal is simultaneously to reduce the tax base and expand military spending to the point where it will no longer be possible to do any meaningful social promising or promise-keeping. So in a sense, running up huge deficits actually furthers the oligarchical right’s interests: it ensures that in the long run, tax revenues can and will only go to economic endeavors that further enrich them but bring no relief to ordinary people just trying to survive.
But on a more congenial note, I suggest that President Obama’s health-insurance changes amount to an advisable realignment of priorities: access to good health care is among the handful of “big things” in which government really should take an interest on behalf of the people, so I don't see why we should call it reckless to put health-care access high on the country’s To Do list. The president has recognized the importance of health to the nation’s well-being, and he has acted accordingly.
If we want to get our national outgo and income into alignment, I suggest, we will need to take a look at revitalizing the tax base (I don't mean this as code for "soak the rich") as well as examining just how many areas of life we think the government really needs to be involved in. But in my view, access to health care is not one of the areas in which the government’s involvement can fairly be labeled unwarranted or merely intrusive.* Whatever one thinks of the insurance reform bill’s particulars, its orientation towards the common citizen who actually pays most of the tax money that will be used for services seems to me entirely appropriate, and I don’t believe its arrival at a difficult socio-economic moment should count against it or lead to charges of fiscal irresponsibility.
*Not that this was necessarily Mr. Samuelson’s point, I should make clear.
Darn it, Dino, not a lot for me to disagree with here, other than healthcare is not the government's responsibility, but that's a done deal for now.
ReplyDeleteMore interesting to me is to see a liberal take on Samuelson. I really like the guy and he has a lot of credibility.
He seems to assiduously avoid partisanship, spreading blame evenly wherever he can.
Do you see him as an honest broker?
SF, I don't know RJS's background well, but so far as I can tell, I've no reason to be hurling imprecations at him, even though I need the exercise. I have no problem with basic fiscal responsibility, which is what I thought he was advocating. I just don't agree with him on his claim the HCR bill is actually such a loser on those grounds. And dammit, there's that mustache to reckon with.
ReplyDeleteI am one of those unusual people. Many have said that for years. You see I think we need to pay more taxes. Yes! I said it! Raise taxes. We continue to want more and more and better and better but we don't want to pay for it. We want health care, and the majority really do, but they don't want to pay for it. We want better bridges and highways but we don't want to pay for it. I could go on and on but I suspect I have made my point. You pay for what you get. Period. End of story. Go in peace and raise taxes.
ReplyDeleteMy mustache isn't nearly as impressive, but I do have a beard and that gives me, I think, equal credibility, especially amongst the credulous.
ReplyDeleteI'm really tired of slippery slope arguments, which I think his resembles and more importantly, I doubt any economist who isn't filthy rich as much as I do a skinny Chef. If this insurance reform -- which I think it is far more than it is health care reform -- is questionable, then how much more questionable were the reckless policies that inflated the bubble? Did Samuelson tell us the unnecessary "regime change" was reckless, wasn't the Government's responsibility and would become an LaBrea tar pit? Did he complain about all the factors which got us here? If he did, it wasn't enough.
Thankfully, Robert bares no relationship to Paul, who would never borrow from Peter to pay the piper.
ReplyDeleteOur esteemed Dino is absolutely right in pointing out that responsible policy makers don’t cut taxes and start two wars at the same time. During times of war, previous generations understood the meaning of sacrifice. This generation only understands the politics of the fast buck from junk bonds, derivatives, credit default swaps … and the latest financial innovation … betting on debt!
While Republicans rave about over-charging the national credit card, American moms are right in calling them deadbeat dads for running up the credit card while neglecting the kids.
When I hear the word ‘socialism’ used as an epithet by tea baggers, what I hear is not the tea baggers (who haven’t a clue what socialism means) but the plutocrats who hire the PR consultants to ‘astroturf’ the tea baggers into a political force on behalf of the plutocrats who would turn everyone into surfs and vassals screaming epithets at any government initiative aimed at improving the public welfare.
Now, I understand Silverfiddle fears the same unholy alliance between corporatists and government that we on the left do. Yet, I find it incomprehensible that our paths diverge beyond this point of recognition.
I must have missed Samuelson's piece when he described the danger of putting the costs of a couple of hot wars on Dad's credit card instead of paying cash bit it must be around somewhere. As a non-partisan type I Imagine Samuelson was beside himself at the huge debt left to 'future generations' and all.
ReplyDeleteI missed it too, but probably because I was reading Das Kapital or the Daily Worker.
ReplyDeleteSamuelson From 2004:
ReplyDelete"To its critics, President Bush's proposed 2004 budget is a monstrosity. They have a point. Bush's policy is: Cut taxes and raise spending. It wasn't enough to fulfill his campaign promise to cut individual tax rates. Now he wants more tax cuts: elimination of the double taxation of corporate dividends; a radical overhaul of tax-free savings accounts. If these new tax cuts are good ideas, Bush might justify them by proposing offsetting spending reductions. Perish the thought.
[...]
Bush's critics are correct that his budgets worsen deficits and the federal debt, which is the total of past deficits. Under Bush's budget, the publicly held federal debt would rise to $5 trillion in 2008 from $3.5 trillion in 2002.
Samuelson has no partisan agenda. I hated hearing this stuff from him back when I still swallowed what my political heroes said, hook, line and sinker.
This isn't a "gotcha!" I share it simply because I know you guys strive for intellectual honesty, and I hate partisanship so much that I hate to see someone like Samuelson unfairly tarred with that ugly brush.
The man has been sounding the fiscal alarm for years and people are finally paying attention.
There are so many alarms going off about so many contradictory possibilities it's hard to hear yourself think.
ReplyDeleteOf course someone will be right by accident and we'll be told he's a genius when it's too late. Many of us will deny it out of sheer partisanship, but we'll never change.
Maybe the only choice is to embrace the horror.
Silverfiddle, the phrase "starve the beast" should be mentioned in this context, and the Chameleon of this account is non other than Alan Greenspan.
ReplyDeleteDuring the 1990s, Greenspan supported the Clinton tax increase which generated both a budget surplus and a social security surplus. Conservative voices in Congress predicted ruination and disastrous consequences with regards to the tax increase. History shows the opposite. The Clinton tax increase unleashed the largest economic expansion in U.S. history ... generating 32 million jobs.
Now turn your attention to the Bush/Cheney years. The Chameleon-in-Chief of the Fed urged Bush to cut taxes ... to stop the 'excessive surpluses' ... while ensuring Congress that the tax cuts would NOT endanger social security benefits. Within 3 years, as the tax cuts soared the deficit, then Greenspan started taking about cutting social security. Lying, hypocritical bastard that he is.
The whole point of 'starving the beast' is to cut taxes, not because they are affordable, but because they are not. Deficits conjure an excuse to squeeze government spending and turn social security and Medicare into targets because that is where the money is ... was.
This has been the right wing radical agenda for decades ... to do away with the social safety net and regulations and consumer protections and everything else that makes our short brutish existence less brutish. Because ... you see ...
The right wing radicals want the nation's wealth for themselves ... and fuck everyone else!
Yes, there are reasons for keeping plutocrats away from government. SF, too bad you don't see the conspiracy behind those who want to starve the beast.
My only point here is to defend Samuelson as a pretty straight shooter.
ReplyDeleteSF, perhaps we should give Samuelson the benefit of this doubt: He warned about the deficit (but the dead beat dads also need to be held to account).
ReplyDeleteI am not picking on you or Samuelson, but I have harsh words for those who got us into this mess ... and the drama begins 30 years ago.
There is no time to elaborate now, but I am sure we will cover these topics again in due course.
Yes Octo, this goes way back, more than 30 years... Try 100!
ReplyDelete