Five Reasons Michele Bachmann is a Serious Threat

photo credit: the original Jeff Martin

Prior to last night's GOP "debate" you could count me among those who hoped cheerfully for a Bachmann nomination on the grounds that she'd be an easy beat, but I am now reconsidering that position. It wasn't much of a debate, if anyone was expecting any kind of ideological breadth, but it did give us a glimpse of Bachmann's range, which has a much wider appeal than previously suspected.

Reason One: Formally announcing her candidacy during the debate was a definite P.R. coup, effectively insuring she would receive major coverage in the news stories that followed. She has reportedly hired Ed Rollins (a seasoned political veteran and the architect of Reagan's 1984 win) to run her campaign. There's a decent-sized demographic of conservative traditionalists who have a bad taste in their mouth from the Bush/Cheney/Rove era, but harbor serious nostalgia for beloved St.Ronnie.

Reason Two: Solid support from the Tea Party, even the fringier elements, with their stellar record of turning out at the polls, combined with her new-found ability to dial down the crazy after only a short period of intensive coaching from her new advisers. Not everyone is a political junkie who follows the daily antics of their favorite political heroes and villains, so the new audience she reaches may not be as acutely aware of her erratic track record.

Reason Three: She's female. The misogynist tendencies of the GOP aside, if you look at the older population, the demographic skews heavily female, and consists of women whose mothers and grandmothers were first-generation voters. As long as she stays away from Social Security and Medicare, she has a potentially strong core of mid-century American women whose biases include wanting to see a woman President in their lifetime.

Reason Four: If she gets the nomination, the Koch machine will be a driving force in her campaign, or at least keeping the gas tank full. She already shares their core economic values and there is an established network of astroturf PACs already in place to keep the propaganda flowing.

Reason Five: Complacency. The biggest danger in 2012 isn't tough old broads or rich white men or misty-eyed Reaganites, it's disaffected progressives. Dismissing a Bachmann candidacy as a non-threat increases the chances that this group will sit home on election day rolling their eyes and emitting exasperated sighs, bickering amongst themselves. You'd think that the clear and concrete evidence that the 2010 collapse in voter turnout yielded some truly disastrous results would have shaken this group up, but no.

I have personally spent my share of time snarking about Bachmann's various gaffes and her sketchy relationship with facts. I may have even called her stupid, based in part on her apparent failure to surround herself with smart people whose job it is to keep her from screwing up like that. I used to consider her in the same basic category as Palin, a Tea Party spokesmodel with questionable substance; however, there is one very major difference: Bachmann appears to be capable of learning from her mistakes.

If Bachmann continues to listen to her handlers and accept their coaching and counsel, she may turn out to be a more formidable candidate than previously expected.