Monday, September 21, 2015

Quacks Like a Duck - Affirming the Consequent

We're liberals, aren't we? So we're primed to believe stories that fit a certain mold without question and often with a good deal of desperate enthusiasm.  An "unarmed child" is shot in the back while kneeling and begging for his life,  a kid is arrested for taking a clock to school. We don't bother with the facts, because after all, there is a history of minorities being treated unfairly and therefore we assume that if B follows A, B implies A.  It doesn't and there's a name for the fallacy.

A kid brings an apparatus in a briefcase to school, made out of clock parts and looks to me very much like the bomb timer you see in so many movies that counts down the minutes to the explosion.  If I were a teacher or Principal, I would have called an expert too and I have a background in electronic engineering. It looks very much like something the movies have conditioned us to see as a countdown timer for a bomb. Did he "invent" a clock and put it in a "pencil case" that looks like it came out of a
James Bond movie or did he take apart a clock and stuff it in something chosen to look suspicious? Your assumptions here mean a lot. The way it's framed means everything.  As many on both sides of the political divide seem to agree:  "It looks like a f*cking bomb!"


But because police have a history of  abusing minorities, any arrest is abuse and because the kid is a Muslim, we, as dependably bigoted and privileged white people are to be presumed acting from bigotry. It must be an act of racism, for are we not white? It must be racism for is he not Muslim?

The thoughts of Liberals seem to be steered by the same sloppy, emotional and instinctive pseudo-reasoning as those of Conservatives, Libertarians, Socialists and for all I know, professors of mathematics.  Go ahead, you blue eyed, blond Norwegian Lutheran - put some clock parts, a battery and a mess of wires in a briefcase and try to get on a plane so you can claim the TSA is profiling Scandinavians.

Hands up!  Don't Shoot!  It was just a clock! The knife was Military Style!   Devious uses of the Framing Effect litter the ground and every thing we read, see and hear are attempts to manipulate opinion, but  even the huge, gilded Rococo monstrosity of this frame seems to escape our notice. Even our experienced knees jerk when tapped by the professionally wielded little hammer.

Are we, as liberals combing the news for examples and when the supply is low, are we so relieved to find yet another juicy one that we suspend disbelief, squint our eyes a little bit and react a little too passionately?  

3 comments:

  1. Normally, I might be inclined to buy this argument ... except for the fact that certain details don't wash. First, the boy presented his project to a science teacher, who learned in advice that the device was NOT A BOMB. Vetting in advance by the science teacher did not [pardon the pun] defuse the situation. Instead the kid was frog marched -- in handcuffs -- to the police station. That is why the story strikes us an another over-reaction on the part of school authorities, one of many in recent months.

    Within the past week, there was another story making headlines -- a kid beaten, arrested and taken away in handcuffs by law enforcement for the unpardonable crime of JAYWALKING! There have been too many incident like this recent months.

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  2. I'm not arguing that the comic opera of zero tolerance and public hysteria isn't there. School violence is still a headliner even with Black Lives mattering more than all others. It's about logic and how evidence is presented and how conclusions are illegitimately drawn for us by the Media. We're addicted to it and like any addict, we don't bother to test the purity before filling the syringe. 89.7% fallacy? No problem, I need my fix.

    To refer to the title, this was presented as a case of egregious racial profiling and though it may have been, you can't legitimately get there from what we've been presented with as evidence. Islamophobes don't trust Muslims, therefore anyone seeing a Muslim as a threat is an Islamophobe? References to "typical" as a reason to judge are fallacious and that's why courts try to keep such things out of testimony. Zimmerman thought Martin was a "typical" vandal and crook. Others thought Zimmerman was a "typical" racist and a "typical" gun owner. All of it was irrelevant to the evidence or any reasonable doubt and the jury decided accordingly. Similar outcomes don't demonstrate similar causes.

    We can't assume any connection between this incident and others without evidence and we don't have that whether or not this seems like another case. Another case is another case.

    We can't have any idea whether young, fair-haired Ole Olaffsen would have been given the same treatment and indeed and as you say, there are countless incidents involving what seems to be unnecessary roughness with school children. It's being demanded by parents and PTAs all over the country and all the people screaming that "it's not safe to send your kids to school any more." "Weapons" have included nail clippers and "drugs" have included aspirin and asthma inhalers. This device looks scarier than a nail clipper. Are we back to the argument about how the same weapon is scarier because it has a plastic stock? Human nature - it's why
    I prefer dogs.

    We read a lot about cops who don't treat black people properly, therefore any incident must be seen as racism? Affirming the consequent. Can one legitimately extrapolate from other and apparently similar incidents? If so it's a weak argument although it's behind most of the hysterical arguments dangled before us from Tawana Brawley to Michael Brown. Stated another way, similar results do not argue for similar causes. It could well be that taking away the box and having it examined by someone expert in the field was appropriate even if the authorities overreacted. Those terrified about school safety may well think not enough was done. If it had proved to be dangerous, the cops would have been fired.

    It was framed as a case of racism and now it's being framed as something else. Nothing appears in the news any more unless it can be framed or packaged as something inflammatory and scandalous and this year the Leitmotif is racist attacks on Children.

    Certainly it's all showmanship and I feel that my conscience is being abused: Here, be angry about this and say that, but ignore the other thing because it's not on the menu this week.

    Anyway, the kid is now famous and gets scholarships from guilty Liberals anxious to prove something, so I hardly feel sorry for him.

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  3. I have to remember who has been behind the safety at all cost, zero tolerance and no civil rights for minors when I read another case of a teenager sending some naughty text messages to his gorlfriend and thus being tagged for sex crimes. It hasn't been the Republicans. In large part it wasn't just Republicans who responded to cries of "genocide" back in the 70's when crime ridden neighborhoods were crying for more police and stricter police tactics.

    Someone said that the only truly safe State is a Police State. Maybe it's true.

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