Sunday, December 5, 2010

Pillars of wisdom

It seems to me that there are two kinds of Americans these days: the uninformed and the misinformed although one has to allow for considerable interbreeding. Is this more true than it used to be or are they just more self assured now that we have multi-billion dollar industries devoted to supporting both mental conditions?

At any rate, it's increasingly customary in the world of blogging in these latter days, to suffer unrestrained and personal attacks in proportion to how well one backs up one's thesis with facts and figures and of course the fury is loudest when one of the fragile pillars of the Republican temple are leaned upon. So let's have another go at it and see what happens. Having been subjected to the unending right wing Jeremiad about the massive public debt and the question of who bears responsibility for it, I thought it interesting to show what the U.S. Office of Management and Budget can tell us about where we are now.


First and most obvious of all is that we're nowhere near the level of debt we had by the end of WW II, although that may be as expected, but that debt fell sharply and almost uninterruptedly until Ronald Reagan established forever the two regnant principles of Republican policy: Debt doesn't matter and tax cuts pay for themselves by creating businesses and jobs. Looking above, it's hard to see the evidence. High marginal taxes of nearly three times as high as today's were in effect as the debt fell, Debt began to rise sharply in response to Reagan's tax cuts and what the chart fails to display is that unemployment during the Teflon years rose to 9.6%, essentially the current levels we have today. Neither does it show that no new private sector jobs were added during the years of the Bush II tax cuts.

Again, what you don't see is how expensive the S&L collapse under Bush I was or how quiet was the Right about Bush's bailout of an industry that collapsed largely because of deregulation. Uninformed? Misinformed or just hypocritical?

We can see elsewhere however, that during the Clinton years, characterized by hysterical outrage at the "confiscatory" tax structure of the Democrats, employment soared and the debt sank, not to resume it's climb until the Commander Guy outdid even Reagan in illustrating that, no, tax cuts don't pay for themselves, don't create jobs and do as they did in the 1920's precipitate bubbles, busts and recessions.

So, I'm waiting for the slurs about my parentage, defective IQ and the rest of the typical projectiles, or at least the catechism of unsupportable maxims we've heard from every Republican since the debt began to climb, but it's my story and I'm sticking to it.

17 comments:

  1. I have found that when they cannot attack the facts, they attack the messenger. When that happens, it makes me happy. It mean that I am right.

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  2. Oh I know, I know -- there's scarce any end of pie charts and whatnot we could draw up absolutely PROVING that Republican economic doctrine is hopelessly wrong, but none of it appears to stand the proverbial snowball's chance against the endless repetition of said doctrine and the incredibly strong drive on the part of the GOP to see it ushered into practice.

    I'll say it again -- if you give Republicans control of the government long enough, they will destroy the economic order because they know absolutely nothing about how to keep a capitalist economy viable in the long term.

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  3. even if trickle down economics worked the whole game has changed with globalization. a large percentage of money trickling down will end up off shore where the jobs and manufacturing have been outsourced.

    just as scary as the level of debt are the future unfunded liabilities, most of which are sacred cows that would be political suicide to confront.

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  4. What every fails to realize is that the government debt IS too high considering the fact that our economy will continue to shrink!

    Most of the Fortune 500 companies make over half their profits overseas, Wall Street is more interested in investing in China than they are in the United States, and what business that is left in the United States isn't worth worrying about obviously!

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  5. Ah TAO my friend. You are almost, but not completely correct in saying that business that is left in the United States isn't worth worrying about.


    Businesses that get government contracts matter to the government. Whether it be a municipality contracting it's water supply to a private contractor. Or Halliburton getting billions to feed troops. (I remeber when the Army had cooks.)


    The price in my city for a contract is a $500 donation. Of course it's a bit more for a federal contract.

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  6. Captain, thanks for the visual aid and the perspective. I will be using your points the next time I end up trapped in a discussion with some right winger about the economy.

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  8. "trapped in a discussion with some right winger about the economy."

    Isn't that a short story by Poe? Or Kafka, maybe. .

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  9. Do I have to say something derogatory about your parents to post a comment here? Perhaps they were too nice. I like the graph, especially the dramatic drop during the Truman Administration after Roosevelt's Keynesian bailout of the ordinary guy (dramatically increased taxation of the rich, etc.).

    We might all hope for a second Dem administration to follow Obama's that would mirror the Truman recovery. Question remains, would it take a major war to do it?

    And your parents? They were probably too nice! Cheers, O. -G.

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  10. I have yet to have anyone even attempt to explain how tax cuts drive creating jobs? Having worked in banking half my career I was always under the apparently mistaken assumption that employers took on the expense of employees when demand for their products/services created the need for bodies to produce.

    Why wouldn't a business just pocket the money from tax breaks? I sure would. And apparently they are. Corporate profits break record during US recession

    Any Tea Party morons out there want to try to explain this?

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  11. If you don't invite them in, Capt then you are just singing to the choir and we know this song by heart!
    I think your graph and accompanying narrative tell the tale succinctly. But low information people don't want stuff they actually have to study, they just want to have fun - ranting and raving, waving misspelled placards.

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  12. Trolls just want to have fun -- good title for a song, no? But you can't explain things flawlessly, you can't prove beyond a reasonable doubt and have them change or moderate their hysterical outrage, because they're the faithful and they will not renounce their idiot beliefs if you torture them. Not that's not something dreams are made on. . .

    I saw a large truck emblazoned with three foot high letters calling Obama a "tyrant" yesterday. How do you communicate with such people?

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  13. Again, what you don't see is how expensive the S&L collapse under Bush I was or how quiet was the Right about Bush's bailout of an industry that collapsed largely because of deregulation. Uninformed? Misinformed or just hypocritical?

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  14. I know, and they called Reagan the Teflon President -- and they call the press "liberal."

    Somehow it never matters what Republicans do or how badly it fails. It just rolls off.

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  15. Today Reagan would be a liberal Democrat and the republicans would have nothing to do with him. Hell, the republicans have moved so far right that Goldwater would be Democrat.

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