Monday, July 16, 2012

How Best To Consider the Current Election Cycle?

I keep hearing that "no president has been re-elected since the 1950s with unemployment rates this high," or words to that effect, but I think a different pattern may well apply to the 2012 elections – 1936 and 1940.  People voted FDR back in even though the country was still suffering through the Great Depression and unemployment (though down from 1932-34's stunning over-20% figures) remained distressingly high.  They probably voted for FDR because they had memories extending back at least a bit more than, say, five minutes, and they understood that the Republicans had nothing to offer except soup lines and a return to the policies that had at least in part resulted in the Great Depression, which was a worldwide phenomenon, just as the economic distress today is global.  When you have la merde smeared all over your tie, you can't get away with telling everybody it's chocolate ice cream.  At least not for a while, anyway.

Current polls show clearly that a big majority of Americans (something like 67%) do NOT blame the president for the economy.  It is stupid to toss a president out on his ear solely because of how the economy is performing, unless you have rock-solid evidence that his policies are contributing to the problem.  Presidents' control over the economy is limited in spite of the claims they feel compelled to make when they're running for election, so the question is whether the current leader is doing the only things that can be done, given the circumstances.  In the present case, that pretty much means advocating intelligent policies since, of course, congressional cynics, liars and knaves have blocked most of what the president has tried to do.  They have disregarded just about every known ameliorative strategy since the advent of modern economics, for a reason it's hard to construe as anything other than the thoroughly despicable one of ensuring President Obama's failure.

But on the whole, what I'm suggesting is upbeat: we may be looking at an election in which millions of voters make their decision and carry it out more along the lines of the 1936 and 1940 cycles than anything we have seen recently.  That would make sense because the downturn we have been going through is widely acknowledged to be the worst economic trouble the country has suffered since the Depression itself.  Mitt Romney is a poster child for the sort of predatory capitalism that scares the hell out of a lot of working people.  He seems to me to be ideologically sympatico with the ultra-privileged Wall Streeters who caused our troubles in the first place.  What's not to not like about such a candidate?  The more people know about him, the less they're taken with, or taken in by, his usually genteel manner and always elegant appearance. 

There are some signs that the Obama campaign is a lot tougher than some previous Democratic ones: the Bain ads strike some people as mean (mostly whiny disingenuous Republicans and mush-mouthed otherpundits), but they're exactly the sort of thing successful candidates do: define opponents as something unflattering before they know what hit them, and then it's too late for them to define themselves. 

Besides, the heart of the matter with regard to Romney's tenure at Bain isn't SEC forms or anything like that, it's the fact that the man wants to take credit for the experience he had with that firm, but only selectively.  And why is he doing that?  Well, because, like all market mythologists, he's eager to acknowledge all the good stuff a person can say about capitalist enterprise, and determined to disavow any connection with the not-so-good stuff.  These guys treat capitalist economics like a god, and of course that means you give "god" all the credit for positive outcomes, and lay the blame at somebody else's door for negative or disturbing events.  The deeper implication of the above is that the GOP isn't in the least concerned to face up to reality: as usual, they're selling snake-oil as a cure for serious ills and mocking their detractors because those detractors won't extend full faith and credit to their preposterous quack prescriptions for nirvana.

All that said, I might as well admit that every election these days seems to be a referendum on just how uninformed we are as a nation, so all we can do is donate some dino dinars or cephalodupois sterling (or that human-made green paper everybody swears by in this degenerate geological epoch), help out physically if possible, and keep whatever kind of digits we have crossed. 

Finally, keeping abreast of the voter-disenfranchisement efforts being carried out all across the country also seems vital: if the devious right-wing faction in various states get their way, they will outright steal this election, disenfranchising potentially hundreds of thousands or even millions of overwhelmingly Democratic voters on the pretense of preventing "voter fraud," which phenomenon is beyond sane doubt almost non-existent in America.  What's being attempted now, I believe, goes far beyond any ordinary attempt to confuse and abuse the electoral process and the voting public: I view it is a sinister attempt at taking down the entire system of representation by specifically preventing massive amounts of voters in one political party from voting.  A viable republic cannot allow that to happen.

10 comments:

  1. Glad I'm not the only one who thinks that the Bain attacks are warranted and effective.

    I heard Mitt was now trying to say he retroactively left Massachusetts before Romneycare was adopted, thus giving him an "out" for that one, too.

    sigh...

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  2. I love the new commercial with Romney singing, "America the Beautiful." I love the new memes wandering around the web with the President and his Cabinet laughing and the words, "And then he asked for an apology." And yesterday's comments by the President that it had been proven that Romney's policies were going to create 800,000 jobs - just not in the U.S.

    We can win. We, the people. We just have to vote. We have to spread the word. And we have to get rid of the newbies in Congress from 2010. They've had their say and they have been USELESS! Let's send them back home to run their funeral homes! (Well, the loser who was voted in from here anyway)

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  3. How best to consider the current election cycle?

    Well... If Obama came to the rescue to save us from the excesses and evils of the rottenest republican president ever; and some republican, tax-hating, opportunist, chameleon, alien, psycho, self-worshipping, monster from hell who doesn't even drink coffee should somehow win the presidency away from our beloved hero?

    I would say that we can't wait until 2016 to defeat this evil. We can't pray that a man or woman even greater than Obama will somehow magically come along. Romney must be defeated at any cost.

    Everything that is precious is at stake.

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  4. The belief that somehow Obama, or someone "greater" than , will come along and presumably rescue us from past excesses is wishful thinking at best. At its worst it could be fatal.

    Thinking outside the box, and this is just me talking here, is unlikely on the national level.

    Observance of history tells us that irrespective of party the trajectory seems to yeild the same resulted. Rapidity of full realization is the only variable.

    But what does the opinion of one really matter? Right?

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  5. Squatlo, LLL and FJ,

    Yes, the ads the Obamalites are putting out right now are very good, aren't they? It should be a minimum requirement for presidents that they be able to carry a tune. Even this dinosaur can do that, and in fact can belt out a decent version of gospel songs and Italian arias on occasion. I mean, even old "Tricky Dick" had some talent at the piano, right? Mitt sounds like a wounded animal up there. The old joke about wanting someone to sing "long ago and far away" applies. I'd settle for his just crooning somewhere "above the fruited plains," so long as that's nowhere near my home.

    I agree that the stakes this time around are as high as ever. You have unlimited money flowing in from old white guys you'd think would be too aged to give a damn about trying to control the world, but obviously they do give a damn, and an angry, narrow-minded one at that. And you have extreme attempt at disenfranchisement that could amount to an electoral coup, if they're not stopped by the courts.

    Anyhow, a further thought on Bain is just that Romney and Obama are both probably quite capable of playing "game theory" with this stuff. Romney has obviously decided to ride it out as long as he can on the following theory: the damage being done to his image is at least containable if he does NOT release his tax records, but it will promptly become uncontainable if he DOES release them: the records will most likely show very complex financial maneuvers, though almost surely nothing illegal. He will look like any other rich internationalist out for himself first and last, which of course contradicts the self-image he wants to shape as an austere Mormon patriarch and uberpatriot. Anyway, he's got to be betting that as the campaign develops, stuff will happen -- such as a dreadful uptick in the unemployment rate, or something along those lines -- that will take the heat off him and keep the initial "tax damage" within manageable boundaries. But Obama is exploiting the situation gamely, and his references to metastrategy are canny, too (as in, "here's why the other guy is doing this or that, but...") -- this kind of shop talk can backfire, but in this case it seems to be working for Obama and against Romney.

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  6. By the way, in case you keep getting hit with the facile claim that "Obama hasn't done anything," here's a site that might be worth drawing upon:

    obamaachievements.org.

    Such lists are no doubt of limited use since for them to be effective, many of the people who say Obama hasn't accomplished anything would need to admit that either

    a) they haven't been paying attention to anything political in the last four years but still want to sound superior and above the partisan fray. (This is an easy way to sound cool -- a common pose of some though by no means all so-called "moderates" and "independents," I believe. It translates "I don't know what the buck I'm talking about and I'm too lazy or befuddled or naive or biased to inform myself and take a stand on anything" to "If only these partisan politicians would come together and solve the American People's [TM] problems! Sigh....)

    or

    b) they're latent or overt racists and would promptly and pointedly "forget" even if Mr. Obama came up to them and personally handed them a million dollars in cash, tax-free.

    c) both of the above, in addition to being under the influence of crazy-making tea.

    Even so, there's no downside to being informed -- except that if you are up on your facts, factlets and factoids, lazy or dishonest fools will flat drive you mad with their dribble instead of merely annoying you....

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  7. RN, I'd suggest that one person matters not at all and very much -- in other words, of course you and I probably feel pretty small as we head to the polls (and I'm 40 feet long!) as individuals when we know damn well that some 85 year-old with 30 billion to burn has been ceaselessly trying to buy the election, etc. But at the same time, demo-crassy is always (cf. Mr. Lincoln's wise words about its being an "experiment") a perilous, uncertain undertaking and seems to depend on small percentages either way. So in that sense, a small number of people who can think for themselves could matter quite a lot. They may even be vital, so it's best to keep on keeping on.

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  8. My "dribble" really should be "drivel." But I rather like "dribble" since it means "drool." How about drivibibble or drooble? That captures both drooling and talking nonsense!

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  9. Another site along the same lines as the one I mentioned above -- they link to it and it seems well done: the peoplesview. Doesn't say a thing about dinosaurs' views, but I'm sure that's an oversight.

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  10. "the facile claim that "Obama hasn't done anything,"

    which one usually hears most often from the people who have filibustered every last attempt to do anything. You know, Limbaugh losers who will simultaneously tell you Obama is ineffective, "an empty suit" and also a "tyrant"

    But that's how the world ends - with Limbaugh.

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