Monday, January 6, 2014

A Dinosaur's Thoughts on the ACA So Far



Now that the ACA or "Obamacare" has kicked in, this simple lizard has a few thoughts to put out on how it's going.  First, it occurs to me that while there have been plenty of complaints from humans of the right-wingety variety, few if any have latched onto something that really is quite radical about the otherwise middle-of-the-road initiative.  I'm referring to that little bid'niss of doing away with the "pre-existing conditions" screening procedure.  Know why that's che-sexy radical?  Well, THE BASIC PREMISE of insurance is that you must set up your client-parameters with certain exclusions in mind, ones that allow you to turn a profit by the actuarial tables.  I'll bet you're still trying to wrap your mind around the fact that a walnut-brained Jurassic dinosaur just used a fancy phrase like "actuarial tables" and actually seems to have understood what it meant, but let's get back to the subject at hand.  What I'm suggesting is that Obumuhcare messes with the very concept that makes insurance insurance.

Here's a f'rinstance: if a guy is standing on top of a tall building and threatening to jump, you don't sell him a million-dollar life-insurance policy that takes effect immediately and carries no exclusionary language against suicide.  But that's close to what Obamacare does, isn't it?  If I have three life-threatening diseases at the same time, I get to sign up for a policy and you can't exclude me on that basis.  You also don't get to charge me more, if I understand the law correctly.  (Except that the insurers can still charge more for older people.  Because not doing that would be no fun at all.)  What that requirement does is transform the for-profit insurer into an entity that in at least one regard has to behave rather like a gub'mint agency.  You get Medicare when you turn 65.  They don't turn you away because you're sick or old, not even with an unctuous smile.

Now, I'm not complaining about this new development – far from it.  If I've got it right, it's a good move on the Administration's part.  It's even admirably insidious of them, no?  People are so busy complaining about a few curve balls that they've missed the soshulist spitball fluttering right past them and into the catcher's mitt.  So there's that.  Big Insurers who used to make Cruella De Vil (you know, the novel and cartoon character who grinned maniacally whilst shooting dalmations from a helicopter – okay, I made that last part up) look like a major benefactor to the ASPCA must now behave like halfway decent corporate citizens. 

But then there's everything else.  I've read that a lot of very poor folk have been able to sign up for Medicaid, CHIP, etc. and that a lot of people have indeed been able to get policies with help from Uncle Sam.  That's great.  What's not so great is that in a fair number of cases, middle-classers are finding that those "affordable" new ACA-compliant policies are priced beyond financial reach, and no help is available.  Somehow, when the Democrats say "rich bastard," they always seem to mean, "Bill Gates, Warren Buffet and all those other caviar-eating mother-truckers who make more than $25,000 per annum."  Yup, O ye rich 'uns, your Prada-shod hoof shall slide in due time; your days of living it up with your ill-gotten venti-cinque mille k's are fast coming to the ignominious end they deserve.  Yes, that's right, you -- and ….  Well, you get the idea.

That’s a problem with the ACA, I think – it fails up to now to make provision for the fact that a lot of perfectly ordinary Americans are getting squeezed by the provisions of a law intended to help ordinary Americans.  Because of course how could people who preside over a capitalist economy possibly be expected to bethink themselves five minutes in advance and realize what's bound to happen when they tell insurers to start offering something like "access to necessary health care" instead of the snake-oil & small-print gobs of bunkum they've so often been guilty of offering in the past?  Think ahead?  "Who does that?" as the saying goes.  Who, indeed.  Why, if you thought they should have made allowance for this kind of behavior, you're just the sort of unreasonable individual who thinks that when you know your website is going to get 3.8 million hits per day, you ought to design it not to crash when more than five people log on at once.  And there's just no talking to an unreasonable lot like you.  I give up, I really do.

Put these two things together – one, that Obamacare radically and (I think) admirably transforms the health insurance market in terms of how it assesses eligibility for access to care, and two, a lot of people don't perceive "unaffordably higher premiums for somewhat better policies" to be particularly beneficial to them.  Then I think you can see what needs to happen.  No, not the "Repeal Maobamacare" mantra of the Right, but rather a determination to iron out whatever needs ironing out in the ACA and a recognition (forced on us partly by the ACA itself) that yes, health care is often pretty good in this country but it's also pretty expensive and almost nobody can really afford the true cost of it, so the market is a VERY imperfect vehicle for making things right.  All that means extending the premium subsidies to people who make more than the amounts that currently trigger subsidies.  (And yes, my $25,000 figure was only intended as satire, it isn't even close to the correct figure.)  Extending the subsidies or tax breaks would move the ACA much closer to being a law that recasts health-care access as a basic right, a necessity, rather than as a privilege or a hassle. 

As things stand, I think the ACA only goes about halfway in that direction, and that's why the public perception of it (aside from enough right-wing propaganda to choke up the infernal rivers Phlegethon and Cocytus together) isn't very positive right now.  It's the half-measure we were able to get given the political landscape during President Obama's first term, and therein lies the problem.  Apparently, so many of us here in the "US & A" despise government so much that even when we try to get it to do something good, we do things in a muddled, overly complex and yet half-bum way and we end up creating as many problems as we solve.  What I think needs to be done would cost us all somewhat more as taxpayers, but at least it would be fair and it would stop all the grumbling about the unintended consequences of a major and mostly beneficial law.

7 comments:

  1. As is usually the case... the wealthy will be fine under ObamaCare, the poor will benefit, the indigent will be unaffected... the middle class as always will be squeezed and hit the hardest. That's how it looks from here.

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  2. Some inky cephalopod musings:
    All critters that swim, walk or fly on this planet are little more than self-replicating water balloons (enhanced by organic compounds); but only humanoids think of their water as holy and divinely inspired … until something unhealthy or unholy bursts those water-filled buffoons. Which brings me to the subject of health care …

    My most humble apologie$ go to the in$urance industry for bur$ting their actuarial bubble$, but one of those pre-existing condition$ is gender. A$$uming women are innately endowed with an ability to bring forth budding water balloon$ at any time, in$urance cartel$ charged women higher premium$ than men. Thu$, women end up twice plucked: First by their $elf-entitled water$pout male counterpart$; then plucked again by their $elf-entitled in$urance provider$.

    Other example$ of pre-existing condition$ that were not covered (pre-O’Bummercare): Acne, allergie$, a$thma, bunion$, diabete$, hemorrhoid$, any mental illne$$, and certain high-risk occupation$ such as firefighter$, police officer$, war correspondent$, liberal blogger$, and fly-by troll$. Actuarial risk$, notwith$tanding, any profit-based healthcare in$urance $ystem is inherently di$criminatory.

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  3. Government is neither your friend nor your enemy. It is but a growing pebble in your shoe.

    Such will be ObamaCare, aka The (Un)Affordable Care Act.

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    Replies
    1. RN,

      The worst habits of Americans are impatience, a demand for immediate gratification, and a short memory. Lets look at the last point first:

      When the Affordable Healthcare Act was first proposed five years ago, this was the state of American healthcare:

      1- Arbitrary decisions were made, not by medical doctors, but by insurance carriers that force citizens to chose between timely treatment or bankruptcy, living or dying;

      2- In 2008, total US healthcare spending reached $2.4 trillion, representing 17% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Healthcare costs were projected to reach 20% GDP by 2017 – an unsustainable rate;

      3- How does our healthcare system compare with other countries? At the current rate of 17% GDP, we spend far more than Switzerland (at 10.9% GDP), Germany (at 10.7% GDP), Canada (at 9.7% GDP), and France (at 9.5% GDP);

      4- Since 1999, health insurance premium costs have risen 120%. In contrast, cumulative inflation rose 44%, and cumulative wage growth rose 29%. When adjusted for inflation and runaway healthcare costs, real wages have fallen precipitously;

      5- Has the most expensive healthcare system in the world reduced infant mortality? Not according to the 2009 World Factbook, published by our own CIA. The USA ranks below 45 nations: USA (at 6.26 deaths per thousand), Cuba (at 5.82), European Union (at 5.72), Canada (at 5.04), Switzerland (at 4.18), Germany (at 3.99), and France (at 3.33), as examples;

      6- Bankruptcies: In 2007, medical bills accounted for 62.1% of personal insolvencies, an increase of 50% in six years.

      In view of the above, the most expensive healthcare system in the world has not been making us healthy, wealthy, or wise.

      To maximize earnings, private insurers cherry picked the most profitable subscribers, rejected high-risk applicants, eliminated those with pre-existing conditions, limited benefits, dropped customers, and charged higher premiums. One consequence of a profit-driven system was a large pool of “medically uninsurable” applicants who were denied access to quality healthcare – an estimated 50 million people. Another consequence was gross inequality that was partitioning our people into ‘haves’ and ‘have nots.’

      The purpose of ACA from the beginning was to correct these systemic abuses and bring the ratio of cost to GDP more in line with other industrialized nations. And no, these goals do not translate into ‘socialized medicine’ as detractors have claimed from the beginning.

      Is ACA working? Perhaps it is too early to tell, but here is a study released yesterday which shows: “For the first time in more than a decade, health care spending grew more slowly than the U.S. economy from 2010 to 2012, according to a new report by government auditors.”

      Over time, I suspect, flaws in the ACA will be corrected and provisions will be revised in due course – just as Social Security and Medicare have been improved over many decades. Major reforms such as the ACA are never easy or glitch-free.

      Impatience. Immediate gratification. Short memories. Best to keep these in mind before you allow partisan polemics to pre-judge the current situation.

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    2. Partisan?

      Okay, will do.

      But I suspect I'm not one that needs the "squeeze."

      You see, it's not the principal of the intent I have an issue with. It's that the administration has lost all credibility at this point.I simply do not believe squat that it says. Period.

      I do know few who voted for (or against) the 2,000 plus page law understand it and the likely truth is what ends up being inside is probably going to be disappointing.

      But as I've grown fond of saying... It is what it is, and perhaps the most honest thing NP ever said was they had to pass the ACA for us to find out what's in it.

      Interesting, but in the final analysis oh well. We'll all just have to wait and see for ourselves how it works out for each of us.


      It is what it is.

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  4. Women also pay less for life insurance, extra longevity being a consequence of not having a Y chromosome. Single men aren't likely to make maternity related claims either. It costs money to ignore actuarial experience.

    Whether the advantage of having a larger base of policyholders which makes experience closer to actuarial tables and reduces random fluctuations will offset the disadvantage of having to accept all who apply, I don't know and I mistrust estimations and predictions especially when there's so much pre-existing bias. The ACA however is bringing many millions of extra customers to the industry ,even if they might not be as profitable in all cases. If many of them are - and they're likely to be - young however, it may wipe out some of the losses occurred by insuring more risky people.

    I do know that non-medical life insurance is always and always must be much more expensive than insurance that requires an exam and questionnaire and the same rule must apply to medical coverage, but I can't buy that one's personal future must necessarily be determined by the need of some corporation to make the maximum profit possible.

    There's more to it than personal cost and perhaps it's impossible to calculate the benefit of stimulating people to become innovators and entrepreneurs because they're not stuck in a cubicle because of the need to cover themselves and their families -- and won't be able to get coverage unless it's as an employee. Face it, if you have an autistic kid, a wife with MS, you're not going to start the next Microsoft and that is a cost to our national future.

    It's uncertainty that makes insurance companies -- well, uncertain and they have to raise premiums to be sure that some random experience won't bankrupt them. They have to pay the cost of shedding risk by using re-insurers, but all of this can be calculated. I think the benefit of adding tens of millions of insured people may counter, may ameliorate that cost by making experience more closely match the actuarial tables. if it does, there is little motivation to let us know about it and as long as we continue a system that only imposes restrictions on private insurers, all the profit over all motivations of Capitalism will continue to complicate things.

    But no one wants to look at this very large equation in any terms other than "what's it going to cost me," altruism being very much out of fashion on the Starboard side these days unless it's couched in terms of patriotism and although a healthy more prosperous America is in my interest and yours it's a hard sell. In some circles that word simply means me first, shoot first but don't ask me to pay for it.

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  5. Jonathan Chait of New York Magazine has a great article on the ACA:

    "One of the two main goals of the Affordable Care Act was to restrain the growth of health-care spending. Within the conservative movement, it has been an article of faith that this would fail. As health-care inflation has fallen to the lowest level in 50 years since Obamacare’s passage, conservatives have gone from arguing that Obamacare will absolutely cause health-care costs to rise to insisting that the decline in health-care costs has absolutely nothing to do with Obamacare."

    THE REST IS HERE.

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